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Aviation value chain: Strong recovery brings profitability into view

Annually since 2005 , we’ve analyzed the aviation value chain. Our newest results, based on 2023 data, indicate a strong year in which eight of the 11 subsectors we track improved, compared with prepandemic levels. The aviation value chain as a whole achieved a significant recovery, recording a marginal 2023 economic loss of roughly $3.6 billion compared with its 2022 loss of about $67 billion.

Beneath the surface, there have been notable shifts. The airline sector notched its best performance in decades—nearly returning its cost of capital in aggregate—and featured the highest proportion of value-creating airlines that we’ve observed in the history of this analysis. Airports in some regions, however, continued to struggle amid the ongoing recovery of postpandemic traffic. Meanwhile, aircraft manufacturing supply chains faced challenges, which meant fewer new planes delivered and, on average, the commercial fleet aged—which created opportunities for the aircraft maintenance sector.

Our measure of value creation is economic profit, which considers the alternative return from equal-risk opportunities that investors could access. 1 Economic profit is calculated by subtracting weighted average cost of capital (WACC) from ROIC and then multiplying by invested capital. We analyzed participants from across the value chain, including airlines; OEMs that produce aircraft and engines; aircraft lessors; air navigation service providers; jet fuel producers; airports; catering suppliers; ground services companies; maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) organizations; freight forwarders; and providers of global distribution systems and other travel technologies. Below, we take a detailed look at the numbers.

Value creation varied by sector

The aviation value chain recorded a modest economic loss of roughly $3.6 billion in 2023. Jet fuel producers, which benefited from elevated fuel prices, and freight forwarders, which continued to see strong air cargo demand, achieved the largest profits. Airports, airlines, and OEMs suffered the largest losses in absolute terms. The overall results, buoyed by the ongoing recovery in air travel, represent a significant improvement compared with 2022, when economic losses across the value chain totaled roughly $67 billion. Nine out of the 11 subsectors we track improved performance in 2023 versus 2022, and six out of 11 performed better compared with 2019.

Drilling down within these subsectors reveals a few narratives. For instance, disruptions to aircraft production supply chains have created both challenges and opportunities. OEM production levels remain materially reduced, and aircraft and engine OEMs as a group generated economic losses of about $2 billion in 2023. But fewer new aircraft being delivered amid strong demand means that airlines are extending the service lives of their existing aircraft: the share of commercial fleet aircraft that are 25 or more years old increased to 9.6 percent, from 8.1 percent. Older aircraft require more maintenance, so the MRO sector rebounded to modest economic profitability of about $42 million (equaling roughly 0.1 percent of revenue).

Meanwhile, in cargo—one of the few bright spots for aviation during the pandemic—demand remained strong, propelled by e-commerce orders. Capacity also rebounded, aided by increased availability of wide-body aircraft, which led to cargo yields dropping by approximately 32 percent. Freight forwarders continued to generate the largest economic profit of any subsector in absolute terms (about $5.1 billion in 2023), but results were still down from the previous year’s profit (about $7.2 billion in 2022). In 2020, the only value-creating airlines were all-cargo airlines, but by 2023, all-cargo airlines constituted only 2 percent of value-creating airlines.

Airlines continue to recover

Our analysis shows that airline sector ROIC has remained below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) since at least 1996. Airlines are a perennially pressured sector. Among the headwinds airlines face are price-sensitive passengers, consolidated supplier markets, and volatile costs for fuel, parts, and labor. In 2023, despite these ongoing challenges, airlines closed the gap between ROIC and WACC to the second-smallest deficit observed since the start of this analysis two decades ago.

Additionally, the share of value-creating airlines in our sample—that is, airlines that achieved ROIC higher than WACC—rose to 49 percent, which is the highest proportion we’ve seen over the history of this analysis. (For comparison, only 23 percent of our airline sample was value-creating in 2019. The best previous recorded result was in 2015, when 32 percent of our sample achieved ROIC above WACC.)

Postpandemic demand has been resilient: revenue-passenger-kilometers—a demand metric for the airline sector—grew by approximately 37 percent year-on-year in 2023, reaching about 94 percent of 2019 levels. 1 Revenue-passenger-kilometers are calculated by multiplying the number of paying passengers by the total distance traveled. Meanwhile, supply growth has slowed due to factors such as supply chain challenges and labor shortages. Given that demand for airline seats grew faster than supply, yields rose. Revenues for the airline sector were at about 108 percent of 2019 levels in nominal terms, while passengers carried were at about 99 percent of 2019 levels. 2 Accounting changes regarding the treatment of aircraft leases may have had additional positive effects on airlines’ ROIC in 2023.

Airline performance varied by region

The regional picture shows notably different patterns of postpandemic recovery. From 2014 to 2019, only North American air carriers consistently created value, due in part to slower capacity growth in a consolidated market. Postpandemic, however, North America continues to produce economic losses, while Europe, Latin America, and Africa and the Middle East have emerged as value-creating regions. The Asian airline sector remains unprofitable, in large part due to significant economic losses from Chinese airlines, which have had slower recovery of international demand after the pandemic.

North American low-cost carriers faced headwinds

Over the past decade, North American airlines have been a bright spot. They were profitable every year between 2014 and 2019—years when most other regions’ airlines posted losses. In 2023, however, North American carriers recorded an overall economic loss of about $0.7 billion.

The underlying data suggests this was largely driven by the sluggish performance of low-cost carriers. In 2019, North American low-cost airlines produced an economic profit of roughly $1.3 billion, but in 2023 this group recorded an economic loss of about $3 billion. Among the challenges that could have contributed to low-cost carriers’ declining performance are oversupply and strong competition in the North American short-haul market, as well as business models that have caused low-cost carriers to miss out on servicing a shift in consumer demand toward long-haul and premium seats.

Several subsectors saw increased performance polarization

In 2023, due in part to company-specific factors, the contrast between top and bottom performers increased within several subsectors. For example, in the aircraft and engine OEM subsector, the difference between the third quartile and bottom quartile of ROIC performance was 23 percentage points in 2019, but in 2023 it increased to 55 percentage points. Increasing polarization was also visible in other subsectors, including airlines, airports, freight forwarders, MROs, and ground handlers.

Airports, reliant on traffic recovery, struggled to rebound

Although airports greatly improved on their 2022 results, their $9 billion economic loss was the largest of any subsector. Airport traffic in 2023 did not recover to its prepandemic levels, affecting both aeronautical (for instance, landing charges) and non-aeronautical (for example, retail spending by passengers in terminals) revenues.

While airlines were able to benefit from the slower recovery of capacity by raising prices, costs for airports are largely fixed (and, in most cases, regulated). Airports therefore saw lower revenues coupled with continued high fixed costs. Given that the airports subsector generally delivered strong economic profit in the years immediately prior to the pandemic, continued postpandemic traffic recovery could lead to improved results.

North American airports continue to post negative economic profit, but this is largely a result of their ownership structure. Most North American airports are publicly owned and are treated as utilities for their communities. They are not subject to the same profit incentives as, for example, typical Asian or European airports, many of which are privatized.

Asia–Pacific airports posted a large economic loss in 2023. Although passenger traffic in Asia–Pacific continued to recover in 2023, it remained at approximately 93 percent of 2019 levels (compared with, for example, 105 percent at airports in the Middle East). Some Asia–Pacific airports also faced slowed retail revenue recovery amid inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty.

Although still recovering from economic challenges created during the pandemic, many subsectors in the aviation value chain exhibited resilience in 2023—exhibiting performance that was significantly improved from the previous few years. Beneath the surface, shifts are occurring, and in every part of the value chain there are value creators. A continuing recovery across subsectors could generate opportunities to outperform for organizations that can identify the right market positions, strategies, and operational approaches.

Nina Lind is a partner in McKinsey’s Stuttgart office, Steve Saxon is a partner in the London office, Vik Krishnan is a senior partner in the Bay Area office, and Jaap Bouwer is a senior knowledge expert in the Amsterdam office.

The authors wish to thank Regis Huc for his contributions to this article.

This article was edited by Seth Stevenson, a senior editor in the New York office.

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Checking in on the aviation value chain’s recovery

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Understanding the pandemic’s impact on the aviation value chain

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We offer different types of travel credit: Trip Credit, Flight Credit and Travel Vouchers. Each type of travel credit has its own terms and conditions, so be sure to read them carefully before redeeming your credit. Keep in mind, travel credits can only be used to book flights, and can’t be used to pay for extras like seats or bags.

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***For Trip Credit issued on or after April 2, 2024, AAdvantage ® members have 12 months to use their Trip Credit when canceling their trip on aa.com or the American app and their AAdvantage ® number is included in their reservation. Non-AAdvantage ® members have 6 months.

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If you received a travel credit, you can use it to book your next trip. Here's how to find and redeem your Trip Credit and Flight Credit.

Trip Credit

If you're an AAdvantage ® member, most Trip Credits will appear in your AAdvantage ® account.

For Trip Credit issued on or after April 2, 2024, AAdvantage ® members have 12 months to use their Trip Credit when canceling their trip on aa.com or the American app and their AAdvantage ® number is included in their reservation. Non-AAdvantage ® members have 6 months.

If you’re an AAdvantage Business ™ Travel Manager, visit your company’s travel management portal to view available Trip Credit.

Step 1: Find your Trip Credit email

Look for an email from American Airlines with the subject line ‘Your Trip Credit.’
Your Trip Credit number is a 13-digit number that begins with ‘00115.’

Keep in mind there are separate ticket numbers for add-ons like seats, upgrades, and bags.

Step 2: Book and add your Trip Credit

Go to aa.com and book your new flight.
On the payment screen, select ‘Trip Credit.’
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General rules

Trip Credit is non-refundable, non-transferable, non-returnable, may not be redeemed for cash, check or credit (except where required by law) and has no implied warranties, including warranties of merchantability or fitness.
Trip Credit is void if bought, sold or bartered, advertised for sale or used for commercial or promotional purposes.
We won’t replace Trip Credit if lost or stolen. This may include inadvertent deletion, forwarding or access of the email containing your Trip Credit number. Please guard the Trip Credit number as you would cash.
Except where prohibited by law, we reserve the right to refuse, void, cancel, reject or hold for review any Trip Credit mistakenly issued in an incorrect denomination or issued or obtained, directly or indirectly, in connection with fraudulent actions, fraudulent claims, compensation abuse or in connection with any violation of these terms and conditions.

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Valid until 11:59 p.m. (CT) on the date listed on the Trip Credit, and we won't reissue it past the expiration date.
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To receive Trip Credit, your original ticket must be canceled before the departure of the first flight (or the ticket loses any remaining value and cannot be used for future travel).

Redemption and usage

You may redeem Trip Credit on aa.com or by contacting Reservations. Trip Credit is not redeemable through any other channels, including airport ticket counters or travel agencies.
When contacting Reservations, tell the agent you have Trip Credit and you want to use it to book your travel.
Trip Credit is redeemable toward air travel on flights operated by American, American Eagle ® or flights marketed by American (designated with an AA*). You can’t use Trip Credit for payment of air travel on any other airline on aa.com.
Contact Reservations to use Trip Credit for qualifying one world ® or other airline partner itineraries.
Trip Credit is redeemable toward the base air fare and directly associated taxes, fees and charges collected as part of the fare calculation.
You may not use Trip Credit for products and / or services sold separate from the fare price or for taxes, fees or charges in connection with AAdvantage ® award travel, American Airlines Vacations℠ or any other non-flight products and / or services sold by American.
You may only use non-taxable Trip Credit for single-passenger reservations on aa.com.
Contact Reservations to use Trip Credit for more than 9 passengers. Trips booked with an AAdvantage Business ™ account can only be booked for 1 passenger at a time.
The recipient of Trip Credit can use it to pay for travel for themselves or others.
You may redeem up to 8 Trip Credits in a single transaction on aa.com or through Reservations.
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If the ticket price is less than the value of the Trip Credit, we’ll issue a new Trip Credit for the difference. For personal trips, the Trip Credit will be emailed to the customer who is ticketed on the Trip Credit redemption. For AAdvantage Business ™ travel, remaining Trip Credit is issued back to the company account.
If changing a business trip with Reservations and the new ticket price is lower than the original trip, any difference in trip value will be issued as Trip Credit to the traveler.
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Flight Credit

If you're an AAdvantage ® member and had your account number listed in your reservation before cancellation, you can log in to your account and view available Flight Credit in your AAdvantage ® account.

Step 1: Find your canceled trip or confirmation email

You'll need your 6-character confirmation code and 13-digit ticket number.
American tickets have a 13-digit number that begins with '001'.

Step 2: View your canceled trip

Go to aa.com and choose ‘Manage trips / Check-in’
Choose ‘View canceled trips’ and enter your trip details.
You’ll find your Flight Credit details on the ‘Your trip’ page.

Step 3: Rebook and add Flight Credit

Go to aa.com and find your new flight.
On the payment screen, choose ‘Add Flight Credit.’
Enter the ticket number from your canceled trip and apply the credit.

Book a trip with your Flight Credit

Flight Credit is non-refundable, non-transferable, non-returnable, may not be redeemed for cash, check or credit (except where required by law) and has no implied warranties, including warranties of merchantability or fitness.
Flight Credit is void if bought, sold or bartered, advertised for sale or used for commercial or promotional purposes.
We won’t replace Flight Credit if lost or stolen. This may include inadvertent deletion, forwarding or access of the email containing your Flight Credit number. Please guard the Flight Credit number as you would cash.
Except where prohibited by law, we reserve the right to refuse, void, cancel, reject or hold for review any Flight Credit mistakenly issued in an incorrect denomination or issued or obtained, directly or indirectly, in connection with fraudulent actions, fraudulent claims, compensation abuse or in connection with any violation of these terms and conditions.
Flight Credit is valid for 1 year from the date the ticket was issued, or 5 years from the date of the qualifying delay or cancellation for eligible flights per the U.S. Department of Transportation’s (DOT) requirements. We will not extend or reissue once it expires.
If you don't show for your flight, your ticket will no longer be valid or eligible for any credit.
We won't accept invalid or expired Flight Credit.
You may redeem Flight Credit on aa.com, in person at the airport or by contacting Reservations.
When contacting Reservations, tell the agent you have Flight Credit and you want to use it to book your travel.
The recipient of Flight Credit can use it to pay for travel for themselves only.
Flight Credit is redeemable toward air travel on flights marketed and operated by American, by American Eagle ® carriers or on flights marketed and sold by American but operated by one of American’s codeshare or one world ® partners (i.e. flights designated with an AA*).
Flight Credit is redeemable toward initial booking, the base air fare and directly associated taxes, fees and charges collected as part of the fare calculation.
You may only redeem 1 Flight Credit for single-passenger trips on aa.com or through Reservations. In order to redeem up to 2 Flight Credits in a single transaction, you must contact Reservations.
If the ticket price is greater than the value of the Flight Credit, you may pay the difference only with a credit card accepted by American.
If the ticket price is less than the value of the Flight Credit, you can only use the value of Flight Credit needed for the current booking while remaining value will be issued as travel credit for future reservations.
You may not use Flight Credit for products and / or services sold separately from the fare price or for taxes, fees or charges in connection with AAdvantage ® award travel, American Airlines Vacations℠ products or services or any other non-flight products and / or services sold by American.

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Top 5 airlines flying to st. petersburg.

This was a code share Latam Airlines flight - everything very good except there was no seatback entertainment

Don't waste your money or points on first class. Delta first class is a joke. The seats were rickety, the food was awful, and nothing worked, wifi, my light, the power plug - and it was dirty - the fold out table was gross. For 2-3 hours, tough it out in Economy.

Loyal Delta traveler, but last nights flight was a train wreck. Seated in 1B after multiple delays. Then we couldn’t takeoff because of an issue with the passenger that was ‘not in compliance’ and had to deplane along with the threat if they did not deplane, all the passengers would be required to do so. Finally they were escorted off, but the experience threw off the crew. Disruptive for everyone. Service was a mess, televisions didn’t work, bathroom door kept swinging open during the entire flight whenever empty …

My flight was cancelled twice and the third time I tried to rebook it online I cancelled the flight because it looked like I would get a refund to my credit card. Instead I now have a credit. I was also on hold for three hours waiting for a representative and then disconnected. I will never fly delta again.

Awful. Flight was continuously getting delayed and gates kept changing without any reason. Flight was delayed for more then 3 hours

5-hour delay due to storms in Tanoa and airspace restricted by Miami traffic controllers.

I would fly again the whole experience was great. The only feed back I can give that they don't do that American Airlines does is the crew there is more humorous with boarding and thank their passengers. It makes it more fun to fly with them. I would however fly Delta again.

Horrible. This was not first class. This was a connecting flight whi h was late. My original flight never came. I hated the fact that delta gave me a connecting flight from New York to Orlando Florida. No meals and the television screens were not working. There wasn't even any power to charge your phones. This is NOT FIRST CLASS DELTA!!! Do better next time!

Flight was delayed an no one make an announcement about it., they only have Coca Cola and nothing else., the food that was served was cold… very bad experience and service

They did a fine job. Can't wait to use Delta in the future.

The plane was clean. The staff was excellent. The flight attendants were very good. Enjoyable flight. Overall. The seats in the back are too small but, will always be.

There was no air on the plane and it was very hot.

Flight crew was amazing! I don't like that the Polaris seats are side-by-side.

Not enough room between rows and food was gross. $160 baggage charge?! Never again.

Flight was 3 1/2 hour delayed with no credit or meal vouchers

Smoothly flight, pleasant flight attendants. I wish there were better food choices.

Everything was awful Flight attendant was condescending, rude and not helpful at all. Small outdated plane. No service, uncomfortable seats. Flight attendant was really the worst. He used hand gestures to communicate instead of words and whenever he used words he was condescending.

They need to improve their boarding process. Group 1 and/or paying first class passengers shouldn't be in the middle of boarding process

late departure due to some unspecified issue with ventilating the cabin. They got it running but it was FREEZING for the whole flight. I asked for a blanket but they didn't provide one. They could not turn up the heat. it was quite miserable.

This was a 5 hour flight with no entertainment and with a snack being provided (pretzels and fruit bar), which are both high in carbs and sugar. Nuts would have been a better choice.

I love to flight american however my carry on had to be sent with regular luggage and it was broken. Don't appreciate that. If when I buy a ticket says I can take a carry on and a hand item there should be space for mwsy stuff and not be basically forced to send the item even if it's at no charge. A.A. needs to work on that. Everything else excellent.

One of the reasons I fly American is because the seating is more comfortable than most airlines. Even in the back of the plane.

The flight was delayed which was disappointing. There was no pre takeoff refreshment in first, as we had to wait around an hour in our seats before take off that was disappointing too. The inflight entertainment/wifi did not work, and the crew were slow to offer drinks in flight

On time, smooth, luggage was out fast at the end of the flight. About perfect.

Pilots showed up late because they decided to stop and get something to eat instead of going straight to our gate, Forcing an 1 1/2 hour delay, and missed flight. Shame on the pilots.

There was a serious delay of almost 2 hrs to departure.. it would have been to be told what caused the delay. Apart from the delay, boarding and the flight itself went smoothly.

Flight departed on time and arrived a bit early. Can’t go wrong with that! And makes a travel experience go so well

WiFi wasn’t working on the flight, several delays and gate changes, ended up taking off 3 hrs later

The flight was quick which gave me more time to get to my other flight.

Terrible. We had about a 3 hours delay which led to us missing our connecting.

Everything was excellent and as expected. The boarding process was great but deboarding was a bit slow. No fault of the crew; it just seemed like the passengers didn’t want to leave! 😂

The flight was delayed and the announcements were hard to hear, but the crew was great

I liked the low price. I did not like the cramped passenger seats. As a below average size person I was cramped in the seat; I can only imagine how uncomfortable an average or large size person would be. I guess that is part of the deal with low cost airlines.

It just baffled me that spirit boarding process that I was charged 2 check in fees for a person bag and carry on. I ended up lugging 3 kids under 10 with 2 bags and to find out at the boarding area that I could not get on the plane due to my lack of reading the baggage policy. I understand if that was the case but the agent also failed to understand one item was in fact a personal item such as laptop bag and charge me as if it was a carry on not personal item. And knowing it’s a horrible storm and last flight in the destination of travel. I could have very easily handed the items to my relative to keep but I didn’t learned about this enforced policy until I was about to board.

I’m not a fan of Spirit Airlines from a not-so-good experience the last time & I swore I would not fly this airline again- bc they charge for EVERYTHING. I only flew Spirit this time bc it wasn’t my choice. I decided to use a “Mystery Ticket” bc of the great price, not knowing it would choose this airline! I found out on this trip how they pick a random seat with a “sticker” for a prize-are we in first grade? just doesn’t seem right & now the first 3 or 4 rows get special treatment-we all paid for our tickets, not just them.

This was the best spirit airlines fight I have ever had. I take spirit up to 3 or more times a year and I am ready to be the Jared of spirit. 🤪 Best flight ever. Everyone was great. I hope my return flight is the same. When you're traveling with a 9 month old you need a different type of care and accommodation. I didn't ask the staff for anything but I didn't have any added stress.

Everyone on the plane was wonderful. I can't say that the trip of flying was wonderful because I hadn't done that since I was 13 years old. Honestly I was terrified. What would make it better is if they didn't drive so fast but I know they have to. And if they could go up slowly and land slowly. But none of that they can control.

Horrible airline with terrible customer service! I was at the Atlanta airport going to Ft Lauderdale. They delayed the takeoff time several times. We finally boarded & taxied away from the gate where they had us sit in a hot airplane for an hour & a half before cancelling the flight due to weather. They did not even offer us water. They took us back to a totally different gate where they said agents would be available to help. Instead, they dumped us out & left us to fend for ourselves. We had to go out of security to go pick up our checked luggage & wait in a long line at the ticket desk where only one agent was working & by the time we got to the front of the line over an hour later, all the flights were full for the rest of the day & only limited seat availability for the next day. If you were one of the lucky few that was able to reschedule the same day flying to the same or a different airport, you had to go back through security & ride the train to get back to the correct date which took over an hour more. A total waste of time. I will never fly Spirit Airlines again!!

Very bad flight was delayed. After they boarded us kept us in plane four 4 hours because they didn’t have fuel. Very unprofessional. Plane and bathrooms were very dirty. AC was blowing very cold. After everything went very bad because od them they rebooked connection flight next day more than 12 hours. Didn’t provide hotel voucher. Never going to fly this airline

Spirit cancel my flight. Many times happen in my travels.

Airline changed the gate from Terminal A to Terminal D which is quite far and only sent a text message few minutes before boarding. Around 50 people missed their flight and as plane didn’t wait for them.

The personal at boarding are rude and try to steel people with their rule of personal item , really bad experience for us

I did not like that people are purposely split ip who book at the same time because we didn’t buy seats. No other airline does that.

Horrible my trip was delayed 3 hours, we already have set in the plane and they delayed the flight.

Checking in was easy and simple, crew was nice and efficient, but I would improve seat assignment randomness to make it easier to sit together based on when you check in. Overall would fly with them again.

It was delayed 9 hours for operational reasons, despite the plane arriving to the airport on time.

I am very disappointed with Frontier Airlines. They cancelled our flight because they couldn't find a crew member, and then didn't get us to our connecting flight. We had to cancel our whole vacation. We were promised flight and hotel vouchers, but they never sent them.

I fly Frontier because it’s affordable. I understand that the seats are tight and not the most comfortable…but that’s part of it. The problem with this flight was that there was a group of travelers directly behind me at the back of the plane who were ridiculously loud and obnoxious the entire flight. I’m pretty sure they were drunk and I could periodically smell an odd odor that I believe was one of them using a smokeless vape pen. The stewards had to remind them to keep quiet during the pre-flight instruction, but that was it. They never said another thing to them for the rest of the flight. It was a miserable.

Six hour delay. Poor customer service. No voucher. Bad communication. Missed important appointments.

I purchased a carry on bag online…was supposed to cost $72 but after a whole slew of bs charges, the total was over $175.00. Because of these hidden charges, I will not even consider flying Frontier ever again. It’s just not worth the hassle. I’m scratching this company off my list forever.

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